National Trust: Conducted a qualitative scenario analysis to assess the transition risk of climate change and improve resilience

The challenge

The National Trust, the UK’s largest conservation charity, sought to understand the transition risks posed by climate change to both its conservation mission and financial sustainability. With a vast array of historic properties and natural landscapes under its care, the Trust needed to evaluate these risks to secure its future resilience and adapt its operations for the long term.

Our approach

To support the National Trust, we conducted a qualitative scenario analysis, beginning with in-depth peer research and stakeholder interviews to identify a comprehensive list of material risks and opportunities. We then facilitated a 20-person, cross-functional workshop, engaging teams across the organization. Through targeted exercises, we assessed the materiality of identified risks and opportunities across multiple time horizons and climate scenarios. This collaborative process allowed us to map current and potential mitigation actions, aligning them with the Trust’s transition planning and strategic goals.

Outcomes

• Our strategic assessment provided the National Trust with a robust, organisation-wide understanding of climate risks and opportunities, fostering alignment and engagement among key stakeholders. The roadmap we developed not only clarified the effectiveness of current mitigation actions but also highlighted strategic pathways for capturing emerging opportunities. This framework equips the National Trust with actionable steps to strengthen resilience and adapt proactively, ensuring it can continue thriving in a changing climate.